The risks of peak oil and climate change spelt out to businesses

Sometimes a report comes out that is so significant it is really worth shouting about. Lloyds of London are one of the oldest and largest insurance companies in the UK and operate all over the world. As insurance is all about managing risks, Lloyds have a team dedicated to predicting trends and risks on global issues, called 360 Risk Insight.

Their latest report is called Suatainable Energy Security, co-authored with think tank Chatham House, and is available to download for free here.

What is so astonishing is that it could have been written by a team from Transition Network. The language used does not beat about the bush, laying down in very stark terms that energy security is an issue that every business needs to be taking very seriously.

In future the effects of depleting fossil fuel reserves will be compounded by rising demand and falling availability.

Businesses can now be under no doubt about the risks posed by both climate change and depleting resources, in particular peak oil.

Community orchard photos

I had a walk around the Community Orchard at Trenoweth yesterday, the first time since planting in March. Here are some photos.

Every tree is in leaf and growing well, despite a cold spring then warm and dry spell. The soil is very dry at the moment but fortunately the trees are not showing signs of drought yet. Back in March there were pools of water on the surface...

As the sward thickens it should reduce the evaporation of water from the soil, and build organic matter which will hold on to any moisture in the soil.

On the ground the grass and clover mix has all come up and is starting to make a good sward. But this corn marigold came in from somewhere and making a lovely show!















Up the Pittsoporum hedge a stand of Honeysuckle smells and looks amazing, providing loads of nectar for insects.












This Thrush is finding food in the orchard to take back to its nest.


















More unusual species I saw include the stunning Common Blue blutterfly and the lovely Yellow Bartsia, which is uncommon on Scilly.



















There will be a program of work for the autumn and winter, and we plan to do a communal apple juicing session in September or October - though sadly not fruit from these trees...yet! More on that nearer the time.

Some thoughts on the Gulf oil spill

As BP's incompetence over their handling of the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico becomes apparent, thoughts have turned to the implications of oil drilling in difficult places.

In the UK we used to be self-sufficient in oil and gas thanks to North Sea reserves, but since 1999 we have become net importers of both fossil fuels that underpin our entire society. This is the point known as "Peak Oil " (and "Peak Gas") , when more than half of reserves are gone; the remainder becomes harder to extract, less pure and so more expensive.

Across the world the picture is getting more critical as more and more countries past their Peak - see on this interesting interactive map on The Last Oil Shock. The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook states "energy prices [will] follow a rising trend through to 2030" and "oil prices are assumed to rebound with rising demand and supply costs".

As oil exploration delves in to more difficult situations such as deepwater, polar and tar sands, the potential for massive environmental and social disasters increases. How much are people and Governments willing to tolerate such costs?

Interestingly, the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre gathered news that "President Obama appears to be taking advantage of the moment [the Gulf oil spill] to push for a transition away from fossil fuels. In a speech in Pittsburgh on Wednesday he pointed out that the inherent risks will increase the harder oil extraction becomes."

The piece finishes with a very good summation of the urgent need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels - in particular oil:
"The broader meaning of the crisis is clear. The easy oil is gone, and impending peak oil pushes the industry to ever more extreme limits. The moratorium of deepwater drilling in the Gulf will probably hasten and worsen the oil supply crunch widely forecast for the middle of this decade."

Local Food Map

The last Scilly Local Food Directory was produced in 2006 and was very successful in mapping local food outlets on the Islands. Since this went out of date there has been nothing to plug the gap, so Transition Scilly decided to create an online local food map to act as a stop gap until the next published Directory.

This map has been created in Google Maps and is very easy to use. Each green balloon represents a farmer or grower selling food on Scilly - click on the balloon for more information. Click here for a bigger map that's easier to use, where you can view the map in three settings - Earth is particularly good.


View Local Food on Scilly in a larger map

This map will be updated periodically. If you spot or mistake, have questions or suggestions, please e-mail enquiries@transitionscilly.org.uk

Energy Descent

Today's Western industrialised society can be definitely categorised as "energy intensive". We use vast quantities of liquid fuels to get us and our goods from A to B, we consume a lot of electricity and everyone relies (directly or indirectly) on other gas and solid fuels.

But how would society operate without access to vast quantities of cheap fossil fuel energy? This is an interesting question, but one that should be treated more than just a hypothetical question. The signs are that we have passed the point of peak oil, which is the point at which the easiest, purest and cheapest liquid oil is used up. From here on oil gets more expensive and more difficult to extract - all in the context of a rising global demand.

This in essence is what Transition is all about - the transition from today's society to a future society in the context of climate change and peak oil as the main drivers of change. But getting from current situation to future vision needs careful planning. The goal of every Transition initiative is to produce an Energy Descent Action Plan, which is the route map to that vision.

Transition Town Totnes have just produced their Plan, which is a great bit of work and a fascinating read. It's all available online here and is highly recommended.

The spaces in between

Professor Tim Jackson is one of the unusual academics who can put over his views very eloquently and precisely without drivelling on in scientific language.

He recently released a book called Prosperity without growth, which challenges the assumptions behind the relentless economic growth model required by capitalism. It's a book with provokes, enlightens and is down right sensible.

This is a short video of a talk Tim Jackson recently gave at a Prince's Foundation conference, Building: a new green economy. His phrase "it's all about the spaces in between" is a very strong point to think over.

Renewable energy potential

Here on Scilly we have one of the best potentials for generating power from solar, wind and wave in the entire UK. Given the relatively low population of around 2,000, a combination of good sunshine levels, high winds and powerful waves and tides indicates that we should have no trouble generating all our energy needs from renewable sources, with more to spare.

There are several issues to contend with however. Firstly, planning. This is a minor issue for solar PV or thermal, a moderate issue for wave and a huge issue for wind.

Secondly, capital cost. The only systems affordable for individuals and families are solar thermal and PV (the latter being more expensive) and even then they require several thousand pounds. That's not to say however these systems are not a good investment - they are, and will be even more so with the recent introduction of the Feed In Tariffs.

For wind turbines, efficiency and pay back periods really require moderate to large installations (tens of thousands upwards), meaning either collective community ownership or company owned ventures. Wave generation is another level of cost entirely (over £1 million), but fortunately a couple of companies are seriously interested in Scilly as a site for wave generation.

Lastly, a big obstacle remains around perception of energy security. At the moment there aren't any serious obstacles surrounding energy supply - liquid, gas or solid fuels and electricity, and all are relatively cheap. However as peak oil starts to take its grip energy costs could become very volatile, with the trend being upward price rises and reduced availability.

Only when energy security is compromised will we realise that we need every energy saving measure and renewable energy installation we can get our hands on. But at this point it will be too late to avoid some uncomfortable situations arising.

However, if it is widely recognised throughout the community that we need to plan for our future energy resources now, we could avoid compromising situations and have a very resilient, sustainable and bright future.

Earth Hour

On Saturday 27th March at 8.30pm local time people across the planet are being encouraged to turn off their lights for an hour.

Earth Hour is a very visual support for action on climate change and reducing energy usage. Individuals, organisations, companies and Governments are getting involved and it's estimated 1 billion people will turn off their lights.

Have a look at the Earth Hour website for some great videos and ideas for Earth Hour: http://earthhour.wwf.org.uk/

In Transition - film screening

On Thursday 25th March at 7.30pm Transition Scilly is showing the film In Transition. This is a film from about the theory and practice of Transition initiatives in the UK and around the world.

We'll also be showing an excellent talk that Rob Hopkins gave at the TED talks last July about the concept of Transition. He speaks very well and the production is superb.

Both are being screened at the Old Wesleyan Chapel on St Mary's. Entry is free and everyone is welcome - tea and cakes as per usual! Donations appreciated to cover costs.

If you can't make it you can watch In Transition here:
http://transitionculture.org/in-transition/

and the TED talk here:
http://blog.ted.com/2009/11/transition_to_a.php

Community orchard

On Sunday 7th March Transition Scilly organised a work session to plant the new Community Orchard at Trenoweth on St Mary's.

Over a dozen members, plus a dozen of the Five Island School's Green Team helped plant 58 trees, including apples, sweet chestnuts, plum, medlar, hazels and greengage. Every tree has has a mulch mat around it to stop weeds and a tree guard to stop rabbits gnawing at the bark.

It was a very productive day with lots of enthusiasm and a good basis for continued development of the orchard. At two thirds of an acre we think this is now the single largest orchard on Scilly and in five years time should be producing a significant amount of fruit. In 25 years time it should be producing tons! Those who help maintain the orchard get a share of the harvest.

Furthermore we hope this will stimulate the resurgence of a strong orchard culture on the Islands, with more people planting, maintaining trees and using the fruit from them. More on that to come later in the year.

For those who are interested, here's a list of what's been planted. All have been selected for taste and disease resistance, and many have wonderfully evocative names displaying a rich heritage.

Apples on MM106 (semi-vigorous rootstock) - mixture of eaters, cookers and cider

• Adams Pearmain x 2
• Ashmeads Kernel x 2
• Egremont Russet x 3
• Fiesta x 3
• King of the Pippins x 3
  
• Lemon Pippin x 3
• Lucombes Pine x 2
• Newton Wonder x 2
• Plum Vite x 2
• Rosemary Russet x 3
• Scrumptious x 3
• Tom Putt x 2
• Winter King x 2

Apples on M26 (semi-dwarfing rootstock) - mixture of eaters, cookers and cider

• Ashmeads Kernel x 1
• Beauty of Bath x 1
• Blenheim Orange x 1
• Cheddar Cross x 1
• Court Pendu Plat x 1
  
• Egremont Russet x 2
• Grenadier x 1
• John Standish x 1
• Katy x 1
• Newton Wonder x 1
• Pinova x 1
• Stirling Castle x 1
• Sunset x 1
  
• Taylors x 1

Sweet Chestnuts

• Belle Epine x 2
• Bournette x 2
• Marlhac x 2

Hazel

• Butler x 1
• Corabel x 1

Plum

• Opal

Medlar

• Nottingham

Gage

• Oullins Golden Gage